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In an interview with Dragonmount recently, Rafe said it would likely be late 2023. So I think Q3/Q4 2023 is right. I'm sad it won't be earlier, though.

Update: They wrapped filming earlier this week! I still think we won't be getting the season until Spring 2023, but I have a hunch that we'll get a premiere date announcement sometime over the summer, maybe at San Diego Comic Con.

Sadly I think we're looking at Spring 2023 at this rate. They haven't quite wrapped up filming yet (although I think they're close), and quality post-production takes a looooong time. But I hope I'm wrong and we see it this year!